SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 0d

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

Leader sits at 79% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

79%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 57¢leader 79¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

57¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$216

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 67% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 67% on 2026-05-06O/U 2.5: 39% on 2026-05-06Both Teams to Score: 45% on 2026-05-06
O/U 1.567¢O/U 2.539¢Both Teams to Score45¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market is pricing a 78% probability that the Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC match will produce more than 1.5 goals. The high probability reflects expectations of a relatively open, goal-heavy contest. Factors driving this level include the attacking capabilities and recent form of both teams, defensive vulnerabilities that might be exposed, and historical scoring patterns in Chinese Super League matchups. The resolution depends entirely on the final match result on the scheduled date. Movement in this probability would likely stem from team news (injuries to key forwards or defenders), confirmed lineups closer to kickoff, or updated injury reports that shift expectations about either team's attacking or defensive strength.

  • Recent goal-scoring output for Shanghai Haigang FC and Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC in their last 5-10 matches compared to season averages
  • Availability of key offensive and defensive players, particularly whether starting strikers or first-choice defenders are fit and available
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two teams in previous matchups
  • Current defensive record and goals-conceded rates for both teams this season
  • Weather conditions and pitch quality on match day, which can materially affect attacking play and goal frequency

What moved the line

  • May 6O/U 3.515pp3520¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5)15pp3217¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)14pp239¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6O/U 1.511pp7867¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)6pp1723¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.