SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 79% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

79%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 56¢leader 79¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

56¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

23pp

contested

24h volume

$677

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 80% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 80% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 58% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 58% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 50% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.580¢O/U 2.558¢Both Teams to Score50¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 65% probability reflects market expectation that Shanghai Shenhua FC will win their upcoming match against Chongqing Tonglianglong FC. The leading assessment favors Shanghai, likely based on recent team performance, squad quality, or home-field advantage if applicable. The gap between the leading contract (65%) and runner-up (51%) suggests some disagreement among participants about Shanghai's true winning chances. Key factors determining the outcome include each team's current form, injury status, head-to-head history, and tactical matchups. The match itself will resolve the uncertainty once played, with the result determining which contracts settle in-the-money.

  • Shanghai Shenhua FC's recent win-loss record and current league standing compared to Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
  • Availability of key players for both teams at match time, particularly any injuries or suspensions affecting starting lineups
  • Historical head-to-head performance between these two clubs and any patterns in how they match up tactically
  • Home-field advantage and venue conditions if the match is played at one team's stadium
  • Current betting line discrepancies across major sportsbooks, which may indicate whether 65% aligns with or diverges from broader market sentiment

What moved the line

  • May 7Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)5pp116¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)3pp63¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)3pp1922¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.