SK Slavia Praha vs. SK Sigma Olomouc - More Markets: SK Sigma Olomouc (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 4 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
46%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$748
4 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 4
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that SK Sigma Olomouc will win by more than 2.5 goals against SK Slavia Praha. At 46%, the market views this as slightly less likely than not. The probability reflects Sigma Olomouc's historical performance against top-tier opposition and Slavia Praha's typical goal-scoring efficiency. The outcome will be determined by the actual match result on the scheduled game date. Key drivers include Sigma Olomouc's current form and ability to generate scoring opportunities against a strong defensive side, versus Slavia Praha's consistency in preventing large goal differentials. The market's assessment suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Sigma Olomouc can overcome the implied challenge of winning by such a margin.
- ›Sigma Olomouc's goal differential in recent matches against comparable opponents and their current attacking output per game
- ›Slavia Praha's defensive record, including goals conceded per match and historical performance in matches against lower-ranked teams
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs, particularly goal margins in recent seasons
- ›Team injury status and lineup availability for both sides heading into the match date
- ›Current league standings and momentum, including whether either team is in a run of form that would affect scoring patterns
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.