Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 73% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$8M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
$20M
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x0d6b64…999a
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $8M
0x3c79ad…d9bd
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xa0728c…6aab
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x8ad765…c8a1
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x469056…6798
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x8134e8…6aec
Slingshot FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x4de6dc…f5e6
Analysis
This contract estimates a 67% probability that Slingshot will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $20 million within one day of its launch. The probability reflects market participants' assessment of the token's initial reception and liquidity conditions. The current reading sits well above 50%, suggesting traders view a $20M FDV as a relatively modest threshold compared to other competing projects' launch outcomes. The main factors supporting this level include Slingshot's market positioning and anticipated trading volume, while downward pressure could emerge from launch timing, overall market conditions, or competition from similar projects. Resolution depends on the exact launch date and how initial trading establishes the FDV based on market capitalization calculations.
- ›Launch date and time will determine the one-day measurement window; delays or market volatility on that specific day could shift outcomes substantially
- ›Comparable projects launched in 2024-2025 showed wide variance in day-one FDV ranging from $15M to over $500M, making historical precedent an imperfect predictor
- ›Trading volume and liquidity pool depth immediately post-launch directly determine achievable market cap; thin liquidity could suppress FDV below $20M despite demand
- ›Concurrent market conditions (Bitcoin dominance, broader altcoin sentiment, regulatory announcements) will influence day-one participant participation rates
- ›Distribution mechanics and unlock schedules affect circulating supply calculations; larger initial circulating supplies compress FDV for equivalent market caps
What moved the line
- May 6$300M↓10pp53→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$20M↑5pp62→67¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$300M↓5pp43→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$50M↑4pp57→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$50M↓4pp59→55¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.