Will St Helens win the Super League Rugby Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2028
879 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Leeds Rhinos win the Super League Rugby Championship
Will Leeds Rhinos win the Super League Rugby Championship?: Leeds Rhinos
KXSLRCHAMP-26-LEE
Cluster 2
Will St Helens win the Super League Rugby Championship
Will St Helens win the Super League Rugby Championship?: St Helens
KXSLRCHAMP-26-STH
Cluster 3
Will Warrington Wolves win the Super League Rugby Championship
Will Warrington Wolves win the Super League Rugby Championship?: Warrington Wolves
KXSLRCHAMP-26-WAR
Analysis
A 15% probability means the market estimates roughly a one-in-six-and-a-half chance that St Helens will win the Super League Rugby Championship. This relatively low probability reflects St Helens' recent performance trajectory and the competitive strength of rivals like Wigan, Leeds, and Penrith. The probability could shift based on team roster changes, injury status of key players, and performance during the regular season. The championship typically concludes in late September or early October, with the playoffs serving as the primary catalyst for resolving this market. Movements in the probability throughout the season would correlate with St Helens' win-loss record, head-to-head results against top competitors, and any significant personnel changes that affect team composition or performance metrics.
- ›St Helens' current league position and win-loss record compared to historical averages and direct competitors
- ›Injury status and availability of roster contributors critical to team performance and match outcomes
- ›Head-to-head results against top-seeded teams during the regular season that indicate relative competitive strength
- ›Changes to coaching staff, player trades, or roster composition that materially affect team capability
- ›St Helens' performance in playoff matches, which directly determine championship eligibility and contention
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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