Smouha SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Egypt Premier League: Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra
Egypt Premier League: Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra
0x2c7a41…d0b1
Analysis
This 27% probability reflects the market's assessment that Ceramica Cleopatra Club will defeat Smouha SC in an upcoming Egyptian Premier League match. The relatively low probability suggests oddsmakers view Smouha SC as the favored side, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. Key drivers of this probability include each team's current league position and recent performance metrics. The match itself will resolve this contract once final results are confirmed. Traders should monitor team news, injury reports, and any lineup changes in the days leading up to kickoff, as these factors frequently shift probabilities in football markets. The wider Egypt Premier League context—including Ceramica Cleopatra's stated championship odds at 40 cents—may also influence confidence in their ability to win individual fixtures.
- ›Ceramica Cleopatra is priced at 40¢ to win the Egypt Premier League title, suggesting structural weakness relative to stronger league contenders
- ›Smouha SC's implied 73% advantage in this specific match indicates significant perceived quality or form difference between the two clubs
- ›Recent head-to-head results and current league standings would show actual historical performance data between these specific teams
- ›Home or away status of the match affects typical win probability by 8-15% in most football markets
- ›Team injury news, suspensions, or recent consecutive fixtures could create sudden probability shifts in the 48 hours before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 7Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra↓6pp42→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra↓5pp36→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra↓4pp43→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.