SOL price on Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This 36% probability indicates that market participants see better-than-even odds that SOL will close 2026 below $100. The current price, recent volatility, and historical drawdowns during crypto downturns are the primary drivers of this forecast. Solana's probability has remained relatively stable compared to broader crypto markets, suggesting traders are pricing in moderate expectations for the asset's performance through year-end. Key catalysts include major technology announcements from the Solana Foundation, developments in the broader cryptocurrency market (particularly Bitcoin's trajectory), regulatory announcements affecting Layer-1 blockchains, and macroeconomic data that typically influences risk-on asset demand. The contract will resolve on January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET based on spot price data at that timestamp.

• ›SOL's historical volatility and past drawdowns relative to its peaks suggest traders weight downside scenarios at roughly 2-to-1 against a close above $100
• ›Bitcoin's price action through year-end typically correlates strongly with Solana performance; BTC futures show material probability mass below $75k, constraining altcoin upside
• ›Network activity, developer adoption metrics, and competing Layer-1 performance will influence whether traders reprice Solana higher in the final quarter of 2026
• ›Macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy trajectory are priced into the current level; inflation surprises or rate-cut delays could pressure the entire risk-asset complex
• ›The runner-up outcome at 14% indicates material optionality around a higher price band, suggesting traders see tail-risk scenarios but not the base case

What moved the line

• May 6100 or above↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
• May 6150 or above↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds