Will Drake release a new song before May 9, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will NewJeans release a a new song before Jan 1, 2027
Will NewJeans release a a new song before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXSONGRELEASEDATE-27NEW-JAN01
Analysis
The 73% probability reflects traders' assessment that Drake will release a new song within the next six days (by May 9, 2026). This estimate is notably higher than typical market uncertainty, suggesting either recent signals about an imminent release or strong historical precedent for Drake announcements in this timeframe. The probability could shift significantly based on official announcements from Drake's social media, his label, or music platforms, which typically provide advance notice or same-day releases. The resolution date of May 9 is the hard deadline; any release after that date resolves the contract as no. Key drivers include whether Drake or his team has teased upcoming music, current promotional activity across his channels, and seasonal release patterns in hip-hop markets.
- ›Drake has a documented history of surprise releases and advance announcements; absence of recent social media teasing or label activity would lower the probability
- ›The narrow 6-day window (May 3-9) constrains the timeframe significantly; most major releases require at least some promotional lead time
- ›Related Kalshi contracts show 95-97% probability Drake releases 'Iceman' before June-July, suggesting traders expect a release soon but possibly after May 9
- ›Current 24-hour volume on the June 1 Iceman contract ($4,434) indicates active interest in Drake release timing, but the May 9 contract has lower visibility
- ›The 73% leader price versus 17% runner-up shows significant confidence in the yes outcome, but not overwhelming certainty typical of near-certain events
What moved the line
- Aug 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓12pp62→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Jan 1, 2027↑12pp50→62¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (61% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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