Will Playboi Carti release a new song before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before November
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
Before September
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
176 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Playboi Carti release a new song before
Will Playboi Carti release a new song before Jul 1, 2026?: Before July
KXSONGRELEASEDATEPC-26-JUL01
Will Playboi Carti release a new song before Nov 1, 2026?: Before November
KXSONGRELEASEDATEPC-26-NOV01
Will Playboi Carti release a new song before Sep 1, 2026?: Before September
KXSONGRELEASEDATEPC-26-SEP01
Analysis
The 57% probability reflects market expectations that Playboi Carti will release new music within the next two months (by July 1, 2026). This assessment is based primarily on his historical release patterns and recent activity signals. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty—traders view a release as somewhat more likely than not, but far from certain. Key drivers include Playboi Carti's typical release cadence, any recent social media or studio activity hints, and competitive pressure in the hip-hop market. The resolution hinges on whether a new song appears on streaming platforms or is officially released before the July 1 deadline. Related markets show mixed signals: his chances of topping Spotify's daily charts in May alone are priced much lower (5%), while broader album-release markets price similar timeframes at 55%, suggesting some skepticism about imminent output versus longer-term releases.
- ›Playboi Carti has not released significant new solo material since late 2023, creating either pent-up release timing or extended silence patterns
- ›Social media, producer collaborations, or industry announcements in May-June 2026 would serve as primary signals for release preparation
- ›Competing hip-hop releases and streaming competition (Drake at 73%, Rihanna at 70%) may influence both artist scheduling and market expectations
- ›The 14-month window between now and the GTA VI album market (55%) suggests traders distinguish between near-term July releases versus longer-horizon projects
- ›Historical Playboi Carti release intervals and any announced tour dates or festival appearances in summer 2026 would directly inform likelihood
What moved the line
- May 6Before November↑38pp19→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Before September↑28pp15→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Before July↑13pp8→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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