South Africa vs. Korea Republic
Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Korea Republic
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Draw (South Africa vs. Korea
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
South Africa vs. Korea Republic
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that South Africa has a 46% chance of winning an upcoming match against Korea Republic, with Korea at 36% and a tie at 8%. The probability suggests a competitive matchup with South Africa slightly favored. The current level likely reflects recent team performance metrics, head-to-head history, and player availability. The match itself will definitively resolve this market—the result will either confirm or contradict current pricing. Key drivers include each team's form leading into the fixture, any injury concerns affecting key players, and historical performance in similar competitive contexts. Low trading volume ($59 in 24-hour volume on the tie contract) suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads, which may make prices more susceptible to sharp shifts as the match date approaches or new information emerges about team conditions.
- ›South Africa is priced 10 percentage points higher than Korea Republic (46% vs 36%), indicating marginal market favoritism but not overwhelming confidence
- ›Match outcome is binary or near-binary (tie at only 8%), suggesting markets expect a decisive result
- ›Tie contract trades at 8 cents with minimal volume ($59/24h), indicating low conviction or limited trader interest in draw scenarios
- ›Related market shows Korea at only 26% against Mexico, potentially creating arbitrage signals if comparable strength assessments differ
- ›Low absolute liquidity across these contracts ($59-$52 range) means small trades could move prices meaningfully before match resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.