South Dakota Republican Senate Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
50 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
South Dakota Republican Senate Primary Winner: Mike Rounds
South Dakota Republican Senate Primary Winner: Mike Rounds
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Analysis
This 96% probability indicates that markets assess one specific candidate as heavily favored to win South Dakota's Republican Senate primary. The high concentration reflects either dominant frontrunner status based on polling, name recognition, or fundraising advantages, with limited viable alternatives. Market prices shift based on new polling data, candidate endorsements, debate performance, or fundraising reports. The primary election date would serve as the definitive resolution point, when actual votes determine the outcome. Until then, any significant shift in candidate viability—through campaign announcements, controversies, or donor momentum changes—could move prices downward. The 4% probability on alternatives suggests markets are pricing in some possibility of an upset, but assign it low odds relative to the leader.
- ›Current frontrunner has documented advantages in polling, endorsements, or institutional support sufficient to justify 96% market probability
- ›Runner-up candidate maintains measurable support at 3%, indicating non-zero path to victory recognized by market participants
- ›Primary election date represents hard resolution point; probability reflects time remaining until that vote occurs
- ›Market liquidity and trading volume ($3,427-$3,317 daily volume on related contracts) affects price stability and reflects participant confidence level
- ›Any announced candidate entry, major endorsement reversal, or polling movement in final weeks before primary would generate price volatility
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.