Spain vs. Saudi Arabia
Leader sits at 86% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spain
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Draw (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia
Spread
76pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$11
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia
Analysis
This 87% probability indicates that markets assess Spain as a strong favorite to defeat Saudi Arabia in an upcoming match. The high confidence reflects Spain's superior FIFA ranking, recent competitive form, and historical head-to-head record against Saudi Arabia. The probability would move lower if recent team injuries, lineup changes, or Saudi Arabia's improved performance data emerged before the match. The primary driver of current pricing appears to be fundamental team strength metrics rather than recent momentum shifts. The match result itself will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, making pre-match team news and any last-minute roster changes the most impactful near-term variables affecting market sentiment.
- ›Spain's historical FIFA ranking and competitive level significantly exceeds Saudi Arabia's, providing a structural foundation for the probability gap
- ›Recent head-to-head performance records between the two nations have favored Spain, informing market expectations of likely outcomes
- ›Any confirmed injuries or absences of key Spanish players would reduce confidence in the 87% level by narrowing the quality gap
- ›Saudi Arabia's recent match results and team form compared to historical baselines would indicate whether the underdog probability deserves adjustment
- ›The specific match context (venue, competition type, squad rotations) determines whether the market should price Spain higher or lower than baseline strength differentials suggest
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia)↓6pp17→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Spain↑5pp82→87¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.