Who will win the next Spanish general election
Leader sits at 73% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
People's Party
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Spanish Socialist Workers' P
Spread
57pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 21, 2028
730 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next Spanish general election
Who will win the next Spanish general election?: People's Party
KXSPAINPARLI-27-PP
Who will win the next Spanish general election?: Vox
KXSPAINPARLI-27-VOX
Who will win the next Spanish general election?: Spanish Socialist Workers' Party
KXSPAINPARLI-27-PSOE
Analysis
The Spanish People's Party (PP) is currently priced at a 73% probability of winning the next general election. This reflects market expectations based on recent polling, parliamentary dynamics, and political positioning in Spain. The primary factors supporting this level are the PP's standing in current polls and its coalition-building capacity. The market assigns meaningful but lower probabilities to the Socialist Party (17%) and other parties, suggesting uncertainty about fragmentation and government formation. The main catalyst that would move this probability significantly would be new polling data, shifts in coalition preferences among parties, or developments affecting voter sentiment. Spanish electoral calendars and any announced election dates would also trigger repricing as uncertainty narrows closer to the actual vote.
- ›Current polling shows the PP leading but potentially without an absolute majority, requiring coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements
- ›The 73% probability implies roughly a 27% chance a different party or coalition wins, reflecting genuine uncertainty about non-PP outcomes
- ›Parliamentary fragmentation in Spain means seat totals do not automatically translate to government formation—coalition negotiations and party preferences directly affect final outcomes
- ›Any significant change in the Socialist Party's polling position or unexpected developments in regional politics could move probabilities substantially
- ›The timing of the next election call and its proximity to the current market date affects how much uncertainty remains in pricing
What moved the line
- Aug 18People's Party↑7pp53→60¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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