Süper Lig Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Galatasaray
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Fenerbahçe
Spread
93pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$290
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Süper Lig Winner
Süper Lig Winner: Fenerbahçe
0x251f14…3cc5
Süper Lig Winner: Galatasaray
0x10a2b6…72c2
Analysis
This 44% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific Turkish Süper Lig club will win the 2026 championship. The probability reflects expectations about that team's remaining fixtures, roster strength, and competition from rivals. The 6-percentage-point gap between venues suggests differing assessments of either team quality or remaining schedule difficulty. The main driver of movement would be mid-season performance data—wins and losses accumulating through the spring and early summer—which would clarify which teams remain competitive. The championship conclusion in May or June 2026 will ultimately resolve this uncertainty. Until then, injuries to key players, transfer activity before any winter window, and head-to-head results between top contenders will shape how traders reassess the probability.
- ›Current standings and points differential versus second-place competitors as of early May 2026
- ›Number of remaining league matches and goal differential trends over the past 10 matches
- ›Injury status of the team's primary offensive or defensive contributors
- ›Historical performance in championship run-ins (May-June) for this specific club over prior seasons
- ›Polymarket's higher estimate (45% vs 39%) suggests different weighting of fixture difficulty or squad depth assessment
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.