Stablecoins depeg before 2027?
Leader sits at 28% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
USDTb
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
GHO
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Stablecoins depeg before 2027
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USDC
0x37721f…98fb
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: GHO
0x47c7a3…fac1
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USD0
0x923a8c…b095
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USDTb
0xfa1235…aeaa
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: PYUSD
0x3fb871…91cd
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USD1
0x26bd52…b18e
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: DAI
0xb7a2f1…0291
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USDS
0x98bfad…a9c8
Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: USDE
0xf81d31…d45a
Analysis
This market asks whether any major USD stablecoins will break their $1 peg at any point before the end of 2026. The 35% probability reflects modest but meaningful concern about stablecoin stability over the next seven months. Movement in this probability hinges on two main forces: macroeconomic stress (banking instability, market crashes, or credit events that could trigger redemption runs) and regulatory action (new rules or enforcement that destabilize current backing mechanisms). The biggest near-term catalyst is any systemic financial shock or major stablecoin issuer regulatory action, though no single scheduled event determines the outcome. Current pricing suggests traders view depeg risk as below even odds but material enough to warrant hedging, particularly given the volatility inherent in crypto markets and potential for unexpected financial stress.
- ›Stablecoin total market cap and redemption pressure during market downturns; historical depegs (e.g., USDC in March 2023) demonstrate vulnerability under stress
- ›Regulatory environment changes affecting collateral requirements, reserve audits, or issuer licensing status before end-2026
- ›Banking system stability and credit market conditions; financial stress events have historically triggered stablecoin runs and temporary depegs
- ›Quality and transparency of underlying reserves backing major stablecoins; actual asset composition vs. claimed backing
- ›Competitive dynamics and market concentration; dominance of USDT, USDC, and USDP means depeg of any would likely count as market event
What moved the line
- May 6USD0↓20pp37→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2PYUSD↓6pp14→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6USDTb↓6pp32→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3USD0↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2USDS↑3pp18→21¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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