How much will new Steam Machine cost
Leader sits at 92% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least $400
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
At least $500
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$692
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will new Steam Machine cost
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $500
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-500
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $800
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-800
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $900
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-900
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $700
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-700
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $400
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-400
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $1100
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-1100
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $1000
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-1000
How much will new Steam Machine cost?: At least $600
KXSTEAMPRICE-27-600
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that Valve's upcoming Steam Machine will cost at least $500. The prediction is based on limited information about hardware specifications and Valve's historical pricing strategy. Since Valve has not officially announced a release date or price, market participants are inferring costs from comparable gaming devices and production economics. The main drivers of this assessment are the expected hardware specifications relative to competing devices and Valve's previous pricing decisions for the original Steam Machine and Steam Deck. An official announcement of the Steam Machine's specifications and launch price would be the primary catalyst to resolve this uncertainty, likely occurring through a Valve press event or official statement. Until then, market confidence reflects assumptions about component costs and Valve's typical profit margins on hardware.
- ›Valve's track record pricing the Steam Deck at $399-$649 establishes a reference point for hardware value propositions in the portable gaming market
- ›Component cost estimates for a desktop or handheld device matching expected Steam Machine specs versus retail pricing typical of the gaming industry
- ›Historical analysis of the original Steam Machine (2015) pricing and market reception, though hardware and market conditions have changed substantially
- ›Official announcements or leaks regarding CPU, GPU, memory, and storage specifications will directly inform production cost estimates
- ›Competitive pricing from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft gaming devices creates market anchor points for what consumers expect to pay for gaming hardware at various performance tiers
What moved the line
- May 6At least $800↓16pp69→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 6At least $900↓11pp42→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least $600↓8pp91→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least $1000↓7pp12→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least $500↓5pp96→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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