Super Rugby Pacific
Leader sits at 97% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Moana Pasifika vs Hurricanes: Hurricanes
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Highlanders vs Waratahs: Hig
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$514
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Super Rugby Pacific
Super Rugby Pacific: Moana Pasifika vs Hurricanes: Moana Pasifika
0x3c8283…7fa7
Super Rugby Pacific: Moana Pasifika vs Hurricanes: Hurricanes
0xe906e7…fe6e
Super Rugby Pacific: Highlanders vs Waratahs: Draw
0xf056dd…eead
Super Rugby Pacific: Brumbies vs Western Force: Draw
0xb4b5ad…23a9
Super Rugby Pacific: Brumbies vs Western Force: Western Force
0xbcf607…f635
Super Rugby Pacific: Brumbies vs Western Force: Brumbies
0x0e3f6e…c79c
Super Rugby Pacific: Highlanders vs Waratahs: Waratahs
0xe186e0…f1f9
Super Rugby Pacific: Highlanders vs Waratahs: Highlanders
0x79d32c…80e6
What moved the line
- May 8Moana Pasifika vs Hurricanes: Hurricanes↑14pp81→95¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Highlanders vs Waratahs: Draw↓14pp40→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Brumbies vs Western Force: Brumbies↓12pp62→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Highlanders vs Waratahs: Waratahs↓11pp38→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Highlanders vs Waratahs: Highlanders↑11pp52→63¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.