Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
20 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce Winner” vs “Besiktas vs Trabzonspor Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce Winner
Cluster 2
Besiktas vs Trabzonspor Winner
Cluster 3
Kocaeli vs Karagumruk Winner
Cluster 4
Goztepe Izmir vs Gaziantep Winner
Cluster 5
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor Winner
Cluster 6
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Winner
Cluster 7
Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa Winner
Cluster 8
Basaksehir vs Samsunspor Winner
Basaksehir vs Samsunspor Winner?: Samsunspor
KXSUPERLIGGAME-26MAY09BASSAM-SAM
Cluster 9
Eyupspor vs Rizespor Winner
Eyupspor vs Rizespor Winner?: Eyupspor
KXSUPERLIGGAME-26MAY09EYURIZ-EYU
What moved the line
- May 7Eyupspor↑5pp39→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Fenerbahce↑4pp63→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Kayserispor↑3pp29→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.