Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 71% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
$100M
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$53
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x8babe4…7ac0
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xd048b3…f16d
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xffcab8…ea68
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x64a5bc…fa4e
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x883107…b788
Analysis
This contracts group measures whether various cryptocurrency tokens will reach a $50 million fully-diluted valuation within one day of their respective launches. The leading contract currently prices this at 68%, suggesting traders believe it more likely than not that tokens will achieve this threshold immediately upon launch. Several factors drive this probability: early liquidity on major exchanges often inflates valuations quickly, token allocation design and community enthusiasm at launch generate trading volume, and comparisons to prior token launches inform expectations. The contracts show declining probabilities as valuation targets increase (500M trades lower than 50M), suggesting market confidence erodes as thresholds rise. Actual valuations will depend on initial exchange listing details, trading volume, price discovery mechanisms, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions at launch time.
- ›Initial exchange liquidity: tokens listed on high-volume pairs (Uniswap, major CEXs) tend to reach higher valuations faster than lower-liquidity launches
- ›First-day trading volume relative to circulating supply: high volume with limited supply naturally produces higher market cap, making $50M thresholds more achievable than $500M-$1B targets
- ›Token allocation concentration: if founding teams or early investors hold large percentages, it constrains free float and can artificially inflate per-token prices on day one
- ›Comparison baseline: recent similar token launches provide empirical reference points for 24-hour valuation patterns and help traders calibrate probability expectations
- ›Market conditions on launch date: broader crypto market sentiment and BTC/ETH performance at launch directly influence risk appetite for newly-minted token purchases
What moved the line
- May 7$300M↑32pp15→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↓20pp42→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$200M↓4pp64→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↓3pp65→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$200M↓3pp67→64¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.