Survivor 50 Winner
Leader sits at 88% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Aubry Bracco
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Cirie Fields
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
May 20, 2026
11 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Survivor 50 Winner
Analysis
Aubry Bracco is priced at 90% to win Survivor 50, meaning traders believe she has roughly a 9-in-10 chance of winning the season. This estimate reflects expectations about her gameplay, positioning within the tribe dynamics, and performance in immunity challenges compared to other finalists. The probability could shift significantly if her alliance fractures, if hidden idols change the voting calculus, or if her threat level causes other players to target her before the finale. The season's finale, scheduled for airing on [date], will ultimately resolve this contract when the winner is definitively announced. Until then, probabilities remain sensitive to post-merge tribal councils and hidden-advantage discoveries that could alter her path to victory.
- ›Aubry's current contract trades at 90¢ while next-highest competitors (Ozzy, Jonathan, Cirie) trade at 3¢, indicating strong market consensus rather than uncertainty
- ›24-hour volume on Aubry's contract ($19,872) vastly exceeds all other contracts combined, suggesting concentrated belief in her victory
- ›The four-contract structure caps Aubry's implied probability at her individual market price, not a derived percentage, meaning 90% reflects direct trader assessment of her winnability
- ›Hidden idols, tribe swaps, or fire-making tiebreakers between now and finale could suddenly shift equity away from front-runners
- ›Aubry's position relative to other all-stars and potential jury voting patterns would be key variables traders consider when pricing her chances
What moved the line
- May 7Aubry Bracco↓4pp89→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Aubry Bracco↑3pp85→88¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.