Will Christian Hubicki be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 9 before Apr 24, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23K
6 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Cirie Fields be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Tiffany Nicole Ervin be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Joe Hunter be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Rizo Velovic be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Jonathan Young be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 before May 23, 2026
What moved the line
- May 8Tiffany Nicole Ervin↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Rick Devens↑5pp55→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Cirie Fields↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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