Sweden vs. Tunisia
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sweden
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia)
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sweden vs. Tunisia
Analysis
This 50% probability indicates roughly even odds that Sweden will defeat Tunisia in their upcoming match. The current assessment reflects limited market depth, with only $9 in daily volume on the most traded contract (Tunisia vs. Japan), suggesting low conviction among traders. Key drivers of this probability include the relative strengths of both teams in regional competition, recent form and head-to-head history, and whether either squad is dealing with injuries or roster changes. The match outcome will depend heavily on tactical execution, ball possession, and conversion efficiency on the day. Resolution occurs upon match completion, which would immediately determine the winner and settle all related contracts. The thin trading volume indicates meaningful uncertainty—modest new information about team composition or recent results could shift the probability materially in either direction.
- ›Trading volume on Sweden vs. Tunisia contracts is negligible ($0 24h), indicating low market confidence and potential for sharp shifts if new information emerges
- ›Related markets show Netherlands favored over Sweden (51¢) and Japan favored over Tunisia (57¢), which may inform expectations about each team's competitive level
- ›The runner-up outcome (likely a draw) trades at 27¢, suggesting the market assigns meaningful probability to a non-decisive result
- ›Recent form, head-to-head records, and any team roster changes prior to match day will be primary factors influencing final odds movement
- ›The 50% headline probability represents the leading contract price rather than an arithmetic average, reflecting actual market clearing rather than consensus
What moved the line
- May 6Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia)↑3pp26→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.