Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Switzerland
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Switzerland vs. Bosnia
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Switzerland will defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in an upcoming match. The 54% price suggests Switzerland enters as the clear favorite but with meaningful uncertainty—Bosnia represents a legitimate underdog threat. Market participants are likely weighing Switzerland's FIFA ranking, recent form, and home-field factors against Bosnia's potential tactical setup and recent performance trends. The primary catalyst is the match itself, which will definitively resolve this outcome. Shifts in betting odds before kickoff would reflect team news (injuries, lineup changes), weather conditions, or late-breaking performance data that affects perceptions of either team's chances on the day.
- ›Switzerland's FIFA ranking and recent competitive results compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina's current standing
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in recent qualifying or friendly matches
- ›Home or neutral field advantage status for the scheduled match
- ›Reported team injuries, suspensions, or lineup unavailability affecting either squad's likely starting XI
- ›The match date and time, as it determines when market uncertainty resolves to a definitive outcome
What moved the line
- May 7Switzerland↑5pp54→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Bosnia and Herzegovina↓3pp25→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.