Switzerland’s June Referendum
Leader sits at 71% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
What will pass?: Civilian Service Act
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
What will pass?: No to ten m
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass
Analysis
Markets estimate a 73% chance that Switzerland's Civilian Service Act will pass in a June referendum, based primarily on Polymarket contracts. This reflects trader expectations about how Swiss voters will decide on a significant policy question regarding military service alternatives. The probability is driven by assessments of public opinion trends, campaign momentum, and historical precedent for similar social referendums in Switzerland. The outcome will be determined on the actual referendum date in June 2026, when Swiss voters cast ballots. Key considerations include the composition of the voting bloc most affected by the proposal, regional voting patterns, and any major campaign developments that shift public sentiment in the final weeks before the vote.
- ›Polymarket's Civilian Service Act contract trades at 72¢ while the opposing 'No to ten million Switzerland' contract sits at 42¢, indicating traders assign the Act roughly 2:1 odds of passage over rejection
- ›The Civilian Service Act contract shows higher 24-hour volume ($343) than its competitor ($750 for the opposing measure), suggesting uneven trader conviction or activity concentration on specific outcomes
- ›Swiss referendums on military and service policy have historically displayed substantial regional and generational divides, making pre-referendum polling accuracy and late shifts material to final margins
- ›The June 2026 referendum date is the hard resolution point; no interim polling or campaign developments between now and then will update the contract price until actual ballots are cast
- ›Historical Swiss voter turnout and yes/no skew on social policy questions will partly determine whether the 73% market estimate proves calibrated or reflects mispricing of voter mobilization asymmetries
What moved the line
- May 6What will pass?: Civilian Service Act↓9pp73→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 8What will pass?: Civilian Service Act↓7pp70→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 2What will pass?: Civilian Service Act↓6pp78→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 7What will pass?: Civilian Service Act↑6pp64→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 6What will pass?: No to ten million Switzerland↓4pp42→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (71% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.