Bangladesh vs New Zealand Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38
14 contracts
Closes
May 13, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Central Sports Club vs Queens Park Cricket Club I Winner” vs “Samoa vs Philippines Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Central Sports Club vs Queens Park Cricket Club I Winner
Cluster 2
Samoa vs Philippines Winner
Cluster 3
Powergen Penal Sports Club vs Clarke Road United Winner
Cluster 4
Romania vs Bulgaria Winner
Cluster 5
Papua New Guinea vs Cook Islands Winner
Cluster 6
Japan vs Fiji Winner
Japan vs Fiji Winner?: Japan
KXT20MATCH-26MAY09FIJJAP-JAP
Japan vs Fiji Winner?: Fiji
KXT20MATCH-26MAY09FIJJAP-FIJ
Cluster 7
Preysal Sports Club vs Trinidad And Tobago Winner
What moved the line
- May 8Central Sports Club↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Queens Park Cricket Club I↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.