Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 29% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$500M
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
$1B
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch
Analysis
This market estimates a 34% chance that Tabi will have a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after its launch. The probability reflects significant uncertainty about initial market appetite for this asset relative to comparable token launches. Key drivers include market sentiment toward new token projects, macroeconomic conditions affecting crypto valuations, and Tabi's specific feature set and marketing reach. The primary uncertainty will resolve immediately upon launch when exchange data, trading volume, and initial pricing become observable. Currently, related contracts suggest traders view $500M as more likely than $1B, while related projects show wide-ranging outcomes. The 34% level indicates traders see this threshold as possible but not probable based on current information.
- ›The $1B FDV threshold sits above the median of related token launch outcomes in the comparison set, where $500M (44¢) and $100M (89¢) contracts show higher implied probabilities
- ›Initial 24-hour trading volume and price discovery mechanism will directly determine whether liquidity and demand support a $1B valuation one day post-launch
- ›Macroeconomic conditions and current cryptocurrency market sentiment as of launch date will significantly influence speculative buying pressure and initial valuations
- ›Tabi's competitive positioning relative to existing similar tokens and its specific utility or feature differentiation affect perceived value among initial traders
- ›Launch timing, exchange availability, and listing strategy will determine the market infrastructure and participant base available to price the asset in the first 24 hours
What moved the line
- May 2$500M↓4pp39→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↓3pp33→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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