SimpleFunctions
9 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 5, 2026 · 27d

Will Carolina and Minnesota be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Hockey Championship Series

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

10%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

10%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$16K

9 contracts

Closes

Jun 5, 2026

27 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 17% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 17% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Carolina” vs “Will Montreal”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This market reflects a 9% probability that the Carolina Hurricanes and Minnesota Wild will face each other in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. The prediction suggests both teams would need to win their respective conference championships, an outcome markets currently view as unlikely. The probability is influenced by each team's current roster strength, playoff seeding position, and recent performance trends. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the 2025-26 NHL season and subsequent playoffs, with the Stanley Cup Finals scheduled for June 2026. Key factors include each team's regular-season performance through the spring, playoff matchup circumstances that determine which teams advance from each conference, and any significant trades or roster changes during the season.

  • Carolina's current playoff positioning and win-loss trajectory relative to other Eastern Conference contenders
  • Minnesota's competitive standing in the Western Conference and recent performance consistency
  • Injury status and roster health for both teams heading into the playoff stretch
  • Head-to-head strength of schedule remaining in the 2025-26 regular season for each club
  • Playoff bracket structure and seeding outcomes that determine which opponents each team faces in earlier rounds

What moved the line

  • May 6Carolina and Colorado16pp2642¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Carolina and Anaheim6pp39¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Carolina and Anaheim6pp93¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Carolina and Vegas5pp138¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Buffalo and Colorado5pp1116¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.