Will PSG vs Atletico be the matchup in the 2026 Champions League Final
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$143K
2 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bayern vs Arsenal be the matchup in the 2026 Champions League Final
Will Bayern vs Arsenal be the matchup in the 2026 Champions League Final?: Bayern vs Arsenal
KXTEAMSINUCL-26-BMUARS
Cluster 2
Will PSG vs Arsenal be the matchup in the 2026 Champions League Final
Will PSG vs Arsenal be the matchup in the 2026 Champions League Final?: PSG vs Arsenal
KXTEAMSINUCL-26-PSGARS
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Paris Saint-Germain and Atlético Madrid will face each other in the 2026 Champions League Final. At 25%, it reflects the combined odds of both teams reaching Europe's premier club competition final through their respective brackets. The current level is shaped by PSG's individual title probability (31%) versus Atlético's lower odds (9%), suggesting markets view PSG as the stronger candidate while doubting Atlético's pathway. The primary factors influencing this probability include each team's current squad strength, injury status, upcoming knockout-stage performance, and the competitive depth of their potential opponents. The 2025-26 Champions League season will progressively resolve this uncertainty as teams advance through group play into the Round of 16 and beyond, with the final scheduled for June 2026.
- ›PSG's win probability of 31% versus Atlético's 9% suggests an asymmetric matchup expectation rather than balanced finalist odds
- ›Atlético's lower individual probability (9%) creates a multiplicative drag on the 25% head-to-head matchup estimate, requiring both teams to outperform market expectations
- ›Knockout draw mechanics in Champions League determine available opponents; both teams' paths depend on group stage performance and seeding rather than bilateral likelihood alone
- ›Recent transfer activity, squad depth, and managerial changes entering the 2025-26 season will materially affect competitive positioning and final-reaching capability
- ›Volume on these contracts ($22-44K range) indicates moderate market liquidity but concentrated trading may not fully reflect all available information about squad composition
What moved the line
- May 6PSG vs Arsenal↑36pp27→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Bayern vs Arsenal↓5pp37→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.