Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Kagoshima United FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 18 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$181
18 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets” vs “Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5)
0xf4a4fa…188d
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x0bd2ca…5488
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4ff230…0214
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)
0xeba801…f645
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: FC Ryūkyū (-1.5)
0xc6d7d5…3edc
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: FC Ryūkyū (-2.5)
0x8122ee…88bf
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x37d876…81d9
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xac71aa…fa1b
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1caf69…9174
Cluster 2
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-2.5)
0x181e34…d370
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x439e35…82f7
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe0cdd9…7a6d
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)
0xf7b2d5…42fa
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Tegevajaro Miyazaki will defeat Kagoshima United FC in their upcoming match. The probability sits at less than one-third, suggesting market participants view Kagoshima as favored. This valuation depends primarily on recent team performance, head-to-head records, and current league standings. Injuries, suspensions, or recent form changes could shift the probability either direction. The match outcome will be determined when the teams play, which would resolve all related contracts. Analysts typically weigh factors including each team's recent results, goal-scoring records, defensive statistics, home-field advantage if applicable, and any personnel changes affecting squad strength.
- ›Recent league position and points per game for both Tegevajaro Miyazaki and Kagoshima United FC in the current season
- ›Head-to-head historical match results and goal differentials between these two specific teams
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either team leading up to the match date
- ›Home versus away performance records, as venue significantly impacts match outcomes in football
- ›Current winning or losing streaks and momentum indicators for both clubs in the weeks preceding the fixture
What moved the line
- May 6O/U 2.5↓34pp53→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)↓32pp37→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ōita Trinita (-1.5)↓29pp38→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ōita Trinita (-2.5)↓27pp38→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6FC Ryūkyū (-2.5)↓27pp38→11¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.