Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Kawasaki Frontale
0x5d662a…c279
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x635cbd…4f96
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5a0c78…7648
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy)
0xae4b3d…8744
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc50831…dfa0
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)
0xe158bd…0a3d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)
0x3c1aa9…576e
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x90099f…118b
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)
0x8de3ff…55c6
Cluster 2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x137a07…5c60
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol
0x3481b3…7cd2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1ae4fa…7485
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds)
0xbb1d85…f498
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xde5526…9dbc
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
0xf874fe…2d7f
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)
0x13fca1…9be2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8c771d…0d08
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Tōkyō Verdy will defeat Kashiwa Reysol in an upcoming match. At 29%, the market assigns Verdy slightly worse odds than a typical underdog, suggesting Kashiwa is favored. The current level reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage considerations. The probability would move higher if Verdy wins their next few matches or Kashiwa suffers key injuries; it would decline if Kashiwa extends their winning streak or Verdy loses upcoming fixtures. The scheduled match date itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—until kickoff, the outcome remains contingent on team conditions, weather, and tactical adjustments leading into the contest.
- ›Recent league performance and points total for both teams in the current J-League season
- ›Head-to-head historical record between Tōkyō Verdy and Kashiwa Reysol over the past 3-5 seasons
- ›Whether the match is played at Verdy's or Kashiwa's home stadium, and each team's home/away win rates
- ›Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international callups before the scheduled date
- ›Current goal differential, defensive record, and offensive output trends for both squads
What moved the line
- May 6O/U 1.5↓30pp73→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓25pp56→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓21pp29→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)↓21pp29→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.