Will Sam Tutty win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+16pp
47h ago
24h volume
$58K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Schmigadoon! win Best Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Schmigadoon! win Best Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Schmigadoon!
KXTONYAWARDS-26BM-SHM
Cluster 2
Will Giant win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Giant win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Giant
KXTONYAWARDS-26BP-GIA
Cluster 3
Will Lear deBessonet win Best Direction of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 4
Will Dane Laffrey win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 5
Will Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch win Best Direction of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 6
Will Scott Pask win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Scott Pask win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Scott Pask
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSDOAM-SCO
Cluster 7
Will Liberation win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Liberation win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Liberation
KXTONYAWARDS-26BP-LIB
Cluster 8
Will Jack Knowles win Best Lighting Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 9
Will Michael Arden win Best Direction of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Michael Arden win Best Direction of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Michael Arden
KXTONYAWARDS-26BDOAM-MIC
Cluster 10
Will Kai Harada win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Kai Harada win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Kai Harada
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM-KAI
Cluster 11
Will Tom Gibbons win Best Sound Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Tom Gibbons win Best Sound Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Tom Gibbons
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSODOAP-TOM
Cluster 12
Will Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman win Best Revival of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 13
Will Jeff Mahshie win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Jeff Mahshie win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Jeff Mahshie
KXTONYAWARDS-26BCDOAP-JEF
Cluster 14
Will Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) win Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 15
Will Nathan Lane win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards
Cluster 16
Will Qween Jean win Best Costume Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
Will Qween Jean win Best Costume Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Qween Jean
KXTONYAWARDS-26BCDOAM-QWE
Analysis
This probability reflects a 28% chance that Sam Tutty will win the Tony Award for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards, scheduled for June 2026. The prediction is driven by the competitive field of nominees and Tutty's positioning relative to other leading contenders in what is typically a closely contested category. The main factor affecting this probability is the strength of competing performances and any momentum from other Broadway awards ceremonies earlier in the season. The resolution of this market depends entirely on the June 2026 Tony Awards ceremony, where the award will be presented and a winner definitively announced. Markets tracking related categories suggest active Broadway voter engagement with multiple productions receiving support.
- ›Sam Tutty's nomination status and visibility compared to other finalists in the Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical category
- ›Historical voting patterns in this category, including whether voters favor established stars, ensemble-focused productions, or breakthrough performances
- ›Performance metrics from earlier award seasons (Drama Desk, Outer Critics Circle, etc.) that often correlate with Tony voting
- ›The overall Broadway season's critical reception and which productions have momentum heading into June 2026
- ›Turnout and composition of Tony voting membership, which can shift outcomes in competitive categories
What moved the line
- May 7Jeff Mahshie↑48pp11→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Jack Knowles↑31pp20→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Dane Laffrey↑24pp47→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Giant↑22pp21→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch↑20pp31→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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