Will Should I Marry a Murderer
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+5pp
23h ago
24h volume
$1K
13 contracts
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Running Point (S” vs “Will The Pitt (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Running Point (S
Will Running Point (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Running Point (S2)
KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-RUNNING22
Will Running Point (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Running Point (S1)
KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-RUNNING11
Cluster 2
Will The Pitt (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 3
Will Invincible (S4) (S4) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 4
Will Your Friends & Neighbors (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 5
Will The Boys (S5) (S5) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 6
Will Unchosen (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 7
Will Hulk Hogan: Real American (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 8
Will Million Dollar Secret (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 9
Will Should I Marry a Murderer? (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 10
Will Daredevil: Born Again (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Cluster 11
Will Beef (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Will Beef (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Beef (S2)
KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-BEEF22
Cluster 12
Will Funny AF with Kevin Hart (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that 'Should I Marry a Murderer?' (Season 1) will rank #1 on Luminate's Top 50 TV shows by hours watched. The 7% probability suggests markets view it as a competitive but unlikely contender against stronger performers like Invincible Season 4. The outcome depends on viewer engagement over the measurement period, with success driven by premiere momentum, audience retention through the season, and how viewership distributes across the five major shows currently tracking. Resolution will occur when Luminate releases its next Top 50 rankings, which would definitively show where the show placed based on actual viewing hours. Markets are pricing in uncertainty about whether a true-crime marriage documentary can outperform established franchises and comedy specials in total hours consumed.
- ›Season 1 premiere date and initial viewership metrics compared to competing titles
- ›Total episode count and episode length relative to other shows in the comparison set
- ›Viewer retention rates week-over-week through the measurement window
- ›Market share of true-crime documentary format versus scripted and comedy content on the platform
- ›Timing of Luminate's next Top 50 release and the specific measurement period it covers
What moved the line
- May 7Born Again (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Daredevil: Born Again (S2)↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 h ago.