Will there be more than 8 #1 songs in 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
More than 12
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
More than 13
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 27, 2026
184 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than 1
Analysis
This market asks whether more than 8 different songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during 2026. The current 95% probability reflects confidence this threshold will be met, based on typical chart turnover patterns. Chart volatility depends on two main factors: the number of competing artists releasing competitive singles during the year, and listener streaming/purchasing behavior. A highly concentrated market dominated by one or two artists would lower the probability, while fragmented competition among many performers would support it. The market resolves in early January 2027 when Billboard publishes final 2026 year-end chart data, though tracking data becomes clearer in November and December as the year concludes.
- ›Historical baseline: the Hot 100 has averaged 10-15 #1 songs per year over the past decade, suggesting 8+ is a common outcome
- ›Market concentration risk: if one artist or album dominates streaming (like a Taylor Swift or Drake surprise release), fewer songs may reach #1
- ›Release schedule: the density and timing of major label releases throughout 2026 affects how many artists can accumulate chart-topping weeks
- ›Streaming platform algorithm changes: Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music weighting shifts can amplify or dampen certain songs' chart performance
- ›Current date context: with ~7 months of 2026 remaining, partial-year performance provides some signal about pace
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 7d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.