Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 51% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
$200M
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x455e2e…24a5
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xdb82bd…465b
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M
0x246b27…daa1
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x373d82…db02
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xafc67b…c2c3
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x77ac37…a2e0
Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x7fa7fb…0533
Analysis
This market estimates a 55% probability that Tori Finance will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $300 million on its first day of trading. The probability reflects mixed signals: moderate confidence in Tori reaching at least this threshold, but meaningful uncertainty about whether the launch valuation will exceed it. The estimate would increase if comparable fintech or DeFi launches recently achieved similar or higher valuations, or if pre-launch demand indicators strengthen. It would decrease if recent launches underwhelmed or if market conditions deteriorate. The main catalyst is the actual launch date and initial trading price discovery, which will definitively establish whether the $300M FDV threshold is crossed. Related markets show lower confidence in significantly higher valuations ($500M, $800M, $1B), suggesting the base case is viewed as more plausible than explosive upside.
- ›Comparable launch valuations: recent fintech or blockchain launches and their day-one FDV outcomes provide direct precedent for expected valuation ranges
- ›Pre-launch metrics: user signups, waitlist demand, and institutional interest commitments indicate market appetite heading into launch
- ›Market conditions at launch date: broader fintech and DeFi sentiment, liquidity availability, and risk appetite will influence trading prices immediately post-launch
- ›Contract distribution across thresholds: the 55% on $300M versus 44% on $500M and 17% on $800M suggests probability clusters, indicating where trader consensus shifts
- ›Time decay and information arrival: as launch approaches, new data on funding, partnerships, or competitive positioning will narrow uncertainty bands
What moved the line
- May 6$200M↓10pp53→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↓8pp54→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$100M↑4pp50→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 8$300M↑4pp27→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↑3pp47→50¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.