Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Inter Miami CF
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Toronto FC
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$40K
liquid
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Inter Miami CF will defeat Toronto FC in an upcoming match, assessed at 46% likelihood. Inter Miami CF is priced as the favorite, with Toronto FC at 30% and a draw at 22%. The market is pricing in Inter Miami's recent form, roster depth, and home advantage if applicable, balanced against Toronto FC's defensive capability and motivation factors. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, providing a clear resolution. Key drivers include team injuries, recent league standings, head-to-head history, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments either side might employ. Contract liquidity remains modest ($8–$6 daily volume), suggesting limited speculative positioning and prices reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus certainty.
- ›Inter Miami CF's current MLS standings and win-loss record versus Toronto FC's record over the same period
- ›Injury status of key players on both squads ahead of the match date
- ›Head-to-head performance in prior season matchups and goal differential in recent fixtures
- ›Home or away designation and historical performance by each team in that context
- ›Recent bookmaker or sportsbook odds for the same match, as a cross-check against this market price
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.