Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Olivia Chow
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Brad Bradford
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$507
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 26, 2026
170 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Analysis
The 77% probability indicates market participants assess one candidate as substantially favored to win the Toronto mayoral election, though roughly one-in-four outcomes favor other candidates. The leading position reflects either significant polling advantages, name recognition, fundraising gaps, or incumbent status relative to competitors. Key factors driving this assessment likely include recent public opinion data, campaign infrastructure, and endorsement patterns. The probability could shift materially based on debate performance, scandal disclosure, or unexpected voter mobilization. Resolution occurs on election day when ballots are counted and a winner is officially declared.
- ›Current polling data or voter preference surveys showing the leader's margin relative to rivals
- ›Fundraising and campaign spending disparities, which correlate with candidate viability and voter reach
- ›Endorsement patterns from established political figures, unions, or community organizations
- ›Debate performance or media coverage shifts that could alter voter perception in the weeks before voting
- ›Turnout expectations and demographic shifts that may favor or disadvantage the leading candidate
What moved the line
- May 7Brad Bradford↑4pp14→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ana Bailão↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Ana Bailão↑3pp5→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.