Türkiye vs. Paraguay
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Türkiye
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (Türkiye vs. Paraguay)
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 20, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Türkiye vs. Paraguay
Analysis
This 31% probability indicates market participants assess Türkiye as having roughly a one-in-three chance of winning this matchup. The market reflects uncertainty between two competitive teams, with the leading outcome priced notably below even odds. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head historical records, and player availability closer to the event date. The probability will likely shift as the match date approaches and more information emerges about team lineups, injuries, and any pre-match developments. Current trading volume is moderate, suggesting some active interest but not consensus certainty. Resolution occurs at the final whistle when the match concludes and the winner is determined.
- ›Türkiye priced at 31% against Paraguay as winner, with Paraguay's probability at 27% and draw at 27%, indicating three-way competitive balance rather than clear favorite
- ›Top contract volume concentrates on US vs. Paraguay (49¢, $298 24h vol), suggesting this may be the actual scheduled matchup rather than Türkiye vs. Paraguay
- ›Polymarket data shows only 2 contracts explicitly for Türkiye vs. Paraguay outcome, indicating lower liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›Historical performance records and recent form between Türkiye and Paraguay would be primary technical factors differentiating the 31% assessment from alternatives
- ›Match resolution requires completion of the scheduled fixture; any postponement, cancellation, or official result announcement would immediately settle the contract
What moved the line
- May 6Türkiye↑5pp49→54¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.