Türkiye vs. United States
Leader sits at 53% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Türkiye
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Draw (Türkiye vs. United Sta
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
48 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Türkiye vs. United States
Analysis
This 35% probability indicates that market participants estimate a roughly one-in-three chance of a Turkey-United States outcome occurring by a specified resolution date. However, the contract details listed (Spirit Airlines stakes, Iran recognition, Greenland acquisition, TSMC investment, and Palantir positions) suggest fragmentation across multiple unrelated U.S. policy questions rather than a direct bilateral comparison. The current pricing reflects uncertainty around U.S. government intervention in corporate investments and diplomatic recognition decisions. Key drivers include shifts in U.S. foreign policy priorities, corporate investment cycles, and geopolitical developments affecting Iran and Arctic interests. Without a unified resolution criterion, the probability's interpretation depends heavily on which underlying contract is considered the primary benchmark. Market participants appear to be pricing in moderate-to-low likelihood of concrete U.S. government action on these fronts before 2027-2029.
- ›The Greenland acquisition contract (34¢) prices the highest single outcome, suggesting it may be the dominant price driver within this market cluster
- ›Combined trading volume across these contracts exceeds $64,000 in 24-hour activity, indicating active disagreement on probability levels
- ›U.S. corporate investment decisions (Spirit, Palantir, TSMC) typically depend on market conditions and regulatory approval timelines rather than bilateral diplomacy
- ›The divergence between contract prices (7¢ to 34¢) reflects substantial uncertainty about which policy outcome is most likely before the respective deadlines
- ›Iranian diplomatic recognition and Greenland acquisition both depend on executive branch decisions with no scheduled vote or announcement date currently set
What moved the line
- May 7Türkiye↑4pp49→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Türkiye vs. United States)↓4pp37→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.