What animals will Trump say in May

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will mention at least one animal by name during public statements in May 2026. The 50% probability on 'Cat' reflects uncertainty about both Trump's speaking frequency and whether his remarks will include animal references. The current distribution suggests 'Chicken' (40¢) and 'Kangaroo' (24¢) are secondary expectations, indicating traders anticipate either multiple animal mentions or concentration around common references. The outcome resolves based on documented public statements—speeches, interviews, social media posts, or press conferences—during the calendar month. Factors influencing this probability include Trump's scheduled appearances and communication patterns, the specificity required for resolution (whether partial names or clear animal references count), and historical baselines from previous months. May 31, 2026 marks the final deadline for statements to be included in resolution.

• ›Trump's confirmed public speaking schedule and media availability for May 2026 affects the probability of any animal mention occurring
• ›Market pricing divergence ('Cat' at 48¢ vs 'Chicken' at 40¢) suggests disagreement on whether references will be deliberate or incidental
• ›Resolution criteria interpretation—whether colloquial animal references ('piggy bank') or only direct animal names qualify—materially affects contract outcomes
• ›Historical frequency of Trump mentioning specific animals in prior months provides baseline for assessing whether May follows typical patterns
• ›Competition between 16 distinct animal contracts means total probabilities exceed 100%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus

What moved the line

• May 26Wolf↑33pp11→44¢ · Polymarket
• May 27Cat↓13pp36→23¢ · Polymarket
• May 27Goat↑11pp32→43¢ · Polymarket
• May 26Cat↓8pp44→36¢ · Polymarket
• May 27Mosquito↑6pp27→33¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds