Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General
Leader sits at 50% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No Announcement by June 30
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Todd Blanche
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
0x788c96…c329
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
0xf14b53…4d69
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
0x9157c8…e33a
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: No Announcement by June 30
0xc3fdb5…aa63
Analysis
This reflects market participants' assessment of which candidate is most likely to be nominated as Attorney General in a Trump administration. Todd Blanche commands the highest contract price at 64 cents, indicating roughly 64% implied probability among Kalshi traders, while other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Lee Zeldin, and Jeanine Pirro trade at substantially lower prices. The probability hinges on Trump's selection criteria, which typically emphasize loyalty, legal acumen, and alignment with his policy agenda. Key factors influencing the market include candidates' current roles, public statements by Trump regarding potential nominees, media reporting on his vetting process, and any formal announcements. The resolution point would be Trump's official announcement or nomination of an Attorney General, which would occur either following an election victory or during transition planning.
- ›Todd Blanche's current role as Trump's lawyer and public visibility in legal matters compared to other candidates' profiles
- ›Volume and price stability on Kalshi contracts indicate trader confidence levels, with Blanche's contract showing significantly higher 24-hour volume ($16,133) than competitors
- ›Public reporting or statements from Trump regarding Attorney General preferences and the timeline for such announcements
- ›Changes in other candidates' availability or prominence—such as electoral or appointment outcomes for Zeldin or DeSantis
- ›Formal announcement by Trump of his Attorney General selection, which would fully resolve the contract
What moved the line
- May 1Todd Blanche↓16pp45→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Lee Zeldin↓11pp23→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Lee Zeldin↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Ron DeSantis↓7pp8→1¢ · Polymarket
- May 1No Announcement by June 30↑7pp37→44¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.