Tunisia vs. Japan
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Japan
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Tunisia vs. Japan)
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tunisia vs. Japan
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Japan will defeat Tunisia in an upcoming match. The 57% level suggests Japan is favored but not overwhelmingly so, with meaningful uncertainty around Tunisia's performance. Japan's recent form, squad strength, and head-to-head history likely drive the current assessment, while Tunisia's defensive capabilities and home-field advantage (if applicable) represent counterbalancing factors. The match itself serves as the resolution event—the final score will determine whether Japan advances or Tunisia produces an upset. Liquidity remains low across most contracts, suggesting limited trader participation and potential for probability shifts as the match approaches and new information emerges about team injuries, tactical changes, or pre-match conditions.
- ›Japan's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Tunisia's current standing and recent performance in qualifying or tournament play
- ›Betting volumes are minimal ($9 in 24-hour volume on the primary Tunisia vs. Japan contract), indicating limited market conviction and sensitivity to new information
- ›The spread between Japan at 57% and the runner-up at 28% suggests a meaningful but not dominant consensus, with roughly one-quarter of probability mass on alternative outcomes
- ›Tunisia's historical record against top-tier Asian opponents and Japan's performance in similar matchups over the past 12-24 months
- ›Match venue, weather conditions, injury status of key players, and any recent tactical or managerial changes announced closer to kickoff
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.