Tunisia vs. Netherlands
Leader sits at 71% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Netherlands
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherland
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tunisia vs. Netherlands
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Tunisia will defeat the Netherlands in an upcoming match, with current pricing suggesting roughly a 71% chance. The high confidence in Tunisia likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage if applicable. Key factors driving this level include team strength assessments and recent performance metrics; movement would depend on injury reports, lineup changes, or updated win-loss data. The match itself will definitively resolve this uncertainty, with the outcome eliminating all other possibilities. However, the low trading volume across related contracts ($405 24h on the most active pair) suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider margins of error in price discovery.
- ›Tunisia's current odds price substantially higher than Netherlands despite historical uncertainty in similar matchups, suggesting market confidence in specific recent form or tactical advantages
- ›Trading volume concentrated in unrelated contracts (Netherlands vs. Japan variants), indicating limited direct market activity on the Tunisia-Netherlands outcome itself
- ›Home or away designation and weather conditions, if applicable, could shift probability significantly given the 71%-26% spread leaves limited room for rebalancing
- ›Recent head-to-head records between these teams and their performances in the last 3-6 months of official competitive matches
- ›Availability of key players confirmed in team rosters versus injury or suspension reports released before match day
What moved the line
- May 6Tunisia↑3pp25→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Tunisia↓3pp26→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands)↑3pp22→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.