Turkey BSL
Leader sits at 48% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Bahçeşehir Koleji
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Winner: Beşiktaş Gain
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Turkey BSL: Winner
Turkey BSL: Winner: Bahçeşehir Koleji
0xbab5a9…80d4
Turkey BSL: Winner: Fenerbahçe Beko
0x96e56f…e07a
Turkey BSL: Winner: Esenler Erokspor
0xe1fdc3…d3ad
Turkey BSL: Winner: Trabzonspor
0xb7638b…f661
Turkey BSL: Winner: Anadolu Efes
0x697aba…0c93
Turkey BSL: Winner: Galatasaray MCT Technic
0xe73f0f…fa6f
Turkey BSL: Winner: Türk Telekom
0xb7eedb…3697
Turkey BSL: Winner: Beşiktaş Gain
0x6dd21c…83c7
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Bahçeşehir Koleji will win the 2025-26 Turkish Basketball Super League (BSL) championship. The market shows five teams trading at identical 50-cent prices, indicating substantial uncertainty about the league's outcome. The current valuation likely reflects the competitive balance among Turkey's top basketball clubs, with Bahçeşehir Koleji, Anadolu Efes, Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe, and Trabzonspor all considered viable contenders. The primary driver of probability movement would be regular-season performance and playoff results, which determine the champion. Key catalysts include injuries to star players, mid-season roster moves, and head-to-head matchups between top teams. The championship will be resolved when the BSL playoffs conclude, typically in late spring 2026. Zero trading volume across all contracts suggests limited market activity, which may indicate either low prediction-market interest in Turkish basketball or recent market inactivity.
- ›Five teams equally priced at 50 cents indicates symmetrical uncertainty rather than a clear favorite emerging
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests minimal recent market activity and potential price staleness
- ›Turkish BSL regular season performance and playoff bracket positioning will directly determine which team advances to finals
- ›Roster composition and injury status of key players on contending teams significantly affects championship probability
- ›The championship resolution date depends on playoff scheduling, typically occurring in May-June 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.