SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Dec 1, 2026 · 206d

Turkey BSL

Leader sits at 48% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

48%

Winner: Bahçeşehir Koleji

runner-up 48¢leader 48¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

48¢

Winner: Beşiktaş Gain

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 1, 2026

206 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Bahçeşehir Koleji: 49% (12 days, 11 points)Winner: Bahçeşehir Koleji: 49% on 2026-05-08Winner: Beşiktaş Gain: 48% (12 days, 11 points)Winner: Beşiktaş Gain: 48% on 2026-05-08Winner: Türk Telekom: 48% (12 days, 12 points)Winner: Türk Telekom: 48% on 2026-05-08
Winner: Bahçeşehir Koleji49¢Winner: Beşiktaş Gain48¢Winner: Türk Telekom48¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Bahçeşehir Koleji will win the 2025-26 Turkish Basketball Super League (BSL) championship. The market shows five teams trading at identical 50-cent prices, indicating substantial uncertainty about the league's outcome. The current valuation likely reflects the competitive balance among Turkey's top basketball clubs, with Bahçeşehir Koleji, Anadolu Efes, Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe, and Trabzonspor all considered viable contenders. The primary driver of probability movement would be regular-season performance and playoff results, which determine the champion. Key catalysts include injuries to star players, mid-season roster moves, and head-to-head matchups between top teams. The championship will be resolved when the BSL playoffs conclude, typically in late spring 2026. Zero trading volume across all contracts suggests limited market activity, which may indicate either low prediction-market interest in Turkish basketball or recent market inactivity.

  • Five teams equally priced at 50 cents indicates symmetrical uncertainty rather than a clear favorite emerging
  • Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests minimal recent market activity and potential price staleness
  • Turkish BSL regular season performance and playoff bracket positioning will directly determine which team advances to finals
  • Roster composition and injury status of key players on contending teams significantly affects championship probability
  • The championship resolution date depends on playoff scheduling, typically occurring in May-June 2026

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.