Based on 3 prediction markets, the current aggregate probability is 28%. Data sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Aggregate probability is 28% across 3 contracts on Kalshi. Updated 1 min ago.

3 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 20, 2026 · 12d

Atletico vs Arsenal

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

28%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

28%

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$2K

3 contracts

Closes

May 20, 2026

12 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 3 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will PSG win the 1st Half

1 contract$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will PSG win the 1st Half?: PSG

KXUCL1H-26MAY30PSGARS-PSG

27¢+1pp$2KK→

Cluster 2

Will Arsenal win the 1st Half

1 contract$411

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Arsenal win the 1st Half?: Arsenal

KXUCL1H-26MAY30PSGARS-ARS

20¢—$411K→

Cluster 3

Will Tie win the 1st Half

1 contract$2

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie

KXUCL1H-26MAY30PSGARS-TIE

37¢+1pp$2K→

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.

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