Over 0.5 1H goals scored
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90K
2 contracts
Closes
May 20, 2026
12 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Over 1.5 1H goals scored
Over 1.5 1H goals scored?: Over 1.5 1H goals scored
KXUCL1HTOTAL-26MAY06BMUPSG-1
Cluster 2
Over 2.5 1H goals scored
Over 2.5 1H goals scored?: Over 2.5 1H goals scored
KXUCL1HTOTAL-26MAY06BMUPSG-2
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that at least one goal will be scored in the first half of a soccer match. At 46%, the probability reflects a near coin-flip assessment of offensive production in early play. First-half goal frequency depends primarily on team attacking quality, defensive organization, and whether either side needs early pace to meet tactical objectives. The contrast with the Over 1.5 markets (55% probability) suggests traders view single-goal outcomes as plausible but multiple goals in 45 minutes as relatively unlikely. The match fixture itself—involving specific teams, competition level, and recent form—represents the critical catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Historical first-half scoring rates and team-specific tendencies typically range from 35-55% probability of at least one goal, making the current level broadly consistent with competitive regular-season or cup play.
- ›Average first-half goals per match in the relevant competition and recent season statistics
- ›Combined expected goals (xG) for both teams in the first 45 minutes based on current offensive and defensive metrics
- ›Motivation and tactical approach—teams pressing early or protecting leads will affect scoring likelihood differently
- ›Recent head-to-head history and first-half scoring patterns between these specific opponents
- ›Match venue and conditions, as home teams sometimes generate more attacking pressure early
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.