2 bound contracts on Kalshi show the leader at 77%, runner-up at 23% (PSG) across 2 winner-take-all outcomes. The headline is the leader's price, not an arithmetic mean.

PSG leads at 77%, runner-up at 23% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes. Updated 1 d ago.

ResolvedFinal: PSG. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (May 7, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsKalshiclosed 1 d agoCloses Jun 3, 2026 · 26d

Bayern Munich vs PSG

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 77% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

77%

PSG

0¢runner-up 23¢leader 77¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

23¢

Bayern Munich

Spread

54pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$1.3M

liquid

Closes

Jun 3, 2026

26 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

PSG52¢Bayern Munich47¢

Top 2 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Bayern Munich vs PSG

2 contracts$1.3M

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Bayern Munich vs PSG: Bayern Munich

KXUCLADVANCE-26MAY06BMUPSG-BMU

23¢—$923KK→

Bayern Munich vs PSG: PSG

KXUCLADVANCE-26MAY06BMUPSG-PSG

77¢—$411KK→

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (77% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.

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