SimpleFunctions
1 contractKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 20, 2026 · 12d

Bayern Munich at PSG

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 57% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

57%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

57%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$463

1 contracts

Closes

May 20, 2026

12 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 55% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 55% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 1 contract · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will both teams score

1 contract$463

Analysis

Bayern Munich is trading at 78% to win their matchup against PSG in an upcoming Champions League fixture. This probability reflects Bayern's historical strength in European competition and their recent form, balanced against PSG's attacking talent and home-field advantage. The odds would shift upward if Bayern demonstrates superior midfield control or defensive organization in pre-match preparation, and downward if key Bayern players are sidelined by injury or PSG shows strong tactical cohesion in warm-up matches. The match result will provide definitive resolution to this uncertainty, with team lineups and final odds adjustments in the 24 hours before kickoff serving as the most significant leading indicators.

  • Bayern Munich's Champions League performance record over the past three seasons compared to PSG's win rate in knockout stages at home
  • Availability of key players for both teams, particularly Bayern's attacking depth and PSG's defensive midfield options
  • Head-to-head historical results between these clubs, including goal differential and tactical patterns
  • Current league form and recent injury reports for both squads leading up to the fixture
  • Betting volume concentration and line movement across different markets, which may indicate informed positioning

What moved the line

  • May 8Both Teams To Score4pp5155¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (57% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.