UCL Finals Qualifiers
Leader sits at 80% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
PSG
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Bayern Munich
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$67K
liquid
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
UCL Finals Qualifiers
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Arsenal will qualify for the UEFA Champions League Finals (the championship match) rather than PSG, Bayern Munich, or Atlético Madrid. The 69% reflects Arsenal's current standing in their UCL campaign, likely driven by their progression in the tournament and perceived strength relative to competitors. The main factors supporting this level are Arsenal's recent form and knockout-stage performance; downward pressure could come from injuries, fixture congestion, or opponent strength. Resolution depends on the outcome of Arsenal's remaining UCL matches leading to the Finals, with knockout draws and results in April-June 2026 serving as the primary catalyst.
- ›Arsenal's current knockout-stage position and remaining opponent difficulty in the UCL bracket
- ›Head-to-head recent form and goal differential between Arsenal and the three competing clubs (PSG, Bayern, Atlético)
- ›Injury status and squad depth availability for Arsenal compared to rivals during the decisive fixture windows
- ›Trading volume concentration: PSG at $5,614 24h volume vs Arsenal at $738, indicating PSG market participants may see higher relative value
- ›The contract is winner-take-all across four outcomes, so Arsenal's 69¢ pricing reflects comparative probability against exactly three alternatives, not an independent assessment
What moved the line
- May 6PSG↑15pp51→66¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Bayern Munich↓14pp49→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (80% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.