Will Arsenal win the Women's Champions League
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$358
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 6, 2026
29 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lyon win the Women's Champions League
Will Lyon win the Women's Champions League?: Lyon
KXUCLW-26-OL
Cluster 2
Will Barcelona win the Women's Champions League
Will Barcelona win the Women's Champions League?: Barcelona
KXUCLW-26-BAR
Analysis
This probability indicates the market's assessment that Arsenal has roughly a 1-in-4 chance of winning the 2025-26 UEFA Women's Champions League. The current 23% reflects Arsenal's competitive standing in European women's football, balanced against strong competition from teams like Barcelona, Lyon, and others in the tournament. The probability would adjust based on Arsenal's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds as the competition progresses. The main catalyst is the Champions League itself—with matches beginning in autumn 2025 and the final scheduled for June 2026, each result will provide concrete evidence of Arsenal's strength relative to competitors. Early-stage results from group matches and knockout performance will be the primary driver of probability shifts.
- ›Arsenal's recent domestic and European performance record compared to historical Champions League winners
- ›Squad depth and injury status of key players heading into the 2025-26 season
- ›Strength and consistency of competing teams expected in the tournament draw
- ›Head-to-head matchups and point differentials from group stage play once matches begin
- ›Market liquidity and trading volume suggest limited depth in pricing confidence for this specific outcome
What moved the line
- May 6Barcelona↑33pp36→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lyon↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Barcelona↓6pp74→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Barcelona↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Lyon↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.