Will Strasbourg Alsace win the UEFA Conference League
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Crystal Palace win the UEFA Conference League
Will Crystal Palace win the UEFA Conference League?: Crystal Palace
KXUECL-26-CRY
Cluster 2
Will Vallecano win the UEFA Conference League
Will Vallecano win the UEFA Conference League?: Vallecano
KXUECL-26-RVC
Analysis
A 31% probability indicates roughly 1-in-3 odds that Strasbourg Alsace will win the UEFA Conference League. The market is pricing in a moderate but meaningful chance for this French club to claim European football's third-tier trophy. The current probability likely reflects Strasbourg's historical performance in continental competitions, their domestic league standing, and their position in the tournament bracket. The primary driver of this probability is the strength of other competing teams and Strasbourg's own recent form and injury status. The most significant catalyst will be their upcoming knockout-stage matches—each victory or defeat will substantially shift the odds by eliminating or advancing them toward the final. The tournament's single-elimination format means results in the next 4-6 weeks will rapidly clarify the likelihood of their ultimate success.
- ›Strasbourg's current domestic league position and recent match results versus their Conference League opponents' strength
- ›The specific draw outcomes and remaining fixtures Strasbourg faces before a potential final
- ›Injury status of key players and squad depth available for midweek European matches
- ›Historical UEFA Conference League performance and track record of French clubs in the competition
- ›Dates of Strasbourg's upcoming knockout matches and performance metrics from those games
What moved the line
- May 8Crystal Palace↑9pp55→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Vallecano↑9pp21→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Vallecano↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Crystal Palace↓4pp59→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Crystal Palace↓3pp62→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.